To the OP, I haven't waded through the entire six pages of responses: Interesting question, with a few fallacies.
Not everyone with money, as you state, is outside of the "it's allll goin' down, man" loop. The only other forum I look at is run by a market analyst who regularly appears on alphabet news media. I've been reading him since 2007, and most of the other forum members are rich enough to play the stock market (and that is the original premise of that forum - stock tips and trading advice). So they have money. I won't say "all" because I haven't spoken to all of them, but most of that forum's members believe modern civilization is going down in flames, and quite soon. Since I joined that board seven years ago, it's gone from analyzing the market to extract the most profit to everyone having left the market and only dipping a toe in if they think it 'll be short-term worthwhile, and discussing what to do with their money otherwise, and how best to situate themselves for the end of the economy as we know it.
That's the fallacy that I saw in the OP. It's not just people without money who see this. It's those who have skin in the game and something to lose, as well.
As to why I think this will happen - well, I don't think it . I know it. At this point, it is math in action. Math is a funny thing . It doesn't give a rip about your football team, or Christmas. It doesn't care about Grandma dying. You could tell math, in a very firm tone of voice, that unless math changes very soon then puppies and fluffy kittens will all die of cancer. But math won't care. Math just is.
The relevant numbers are all out there - government reports out the wazoo, every week. Not enough of the (true) numbers needed for a serious mathematician to do the work to find out exactly *when*, but enough to know that it is inevitable. Getting rid of the M3 report was a doozy, but at least we can still look at the QE and extrapolate.
$15 Billion (a big B) in debt every week. And by debt, I mean the government takes that big chunk of taxes and then spends even more on top of it. It'd be an extra $200 a week for your average Joe and Sally Six-Pack, on top of the taxes they already pay, only to cover the extra debt the government incurred last year alone. Just federal government debt, so after every person in America pays their weekly share of that then we can get to the state debt, and after that then 0ur own personal household debt and THEN pay the actual bills to live, like food. We can 'Murika and "USA USA" all we want, that can't happen *mathematically*.
Law of exponents. Everything can be fine, right up until it isn't.
The only question is whether we have passed the event horizon. I argue that we have, and in general the math backs me up, but others argue we may have another year before we hit the point of no return and in general the fact that the government doesn't tell us all the numbers backs them up. But then, do you see politicians advocating a change in economic policy over the next year? So po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe.
Anyways. My 96 pence. Coz inflation, y'know.
